/pol/ - Politically Incorrect

eh im pretty far behind on that situation.
current world affairs make me wish that austrian painter was here

First off the war is another NATO proxy war with Russia. Apparently the goal all along was to arm Ukraine and eventually have Ukraine join NATO and put missiles on Russia's border. Russia's own 'Cuban Missile Crisis' if you will. Obviously there are some who deny this but long story short that is what Russia claimed and they did give the West plenty of opportunity to negotiate and settle the whole Minsk dispute but the US, UK and Ukraine told the Russians to kindly "fuck off". Therefore the Russian invasion happened and the war has been one of attrition (aka demilitarization and collapse of the enemy).

NATO successfully armed and trained Ukraine's military, they are a very powerful force to reckon with… however, Russia is a nuclear superpower with a very powerful advanced military. This is why the war of attrition is a long term goal for Russia, this is a very brutal fight over national security of one nation (Russia) vs the national sovereignty of another (Ukraine). Ukraine always wanted to join NATO, and Russia has always said Ukraine was their red line in the sand they would go to war over had they ever come close to joining NATO.

>>3
That being said, the US and NATO countries underestimated Russia. They thought by cutting Russia off the global financial transaction system (SWIFT) that Russia's economy would collapse. The West was wrong. Russia backed a percentage of their currency with strategic gold reserves, then manipulated their currency and started to trade oil outside the US dollar at a reduced price to other nations, like China and India, to sustain their economy. Eventually they subsidized their industrial base and have both a war time economy while maintaining necessary industries like agriculture to remain self-sufficient putting their own land and resources to use. It worked like a charm. Russia today is far more self-sufficient and to the shock of the West, is becoming an industrial powerhouse all without relying on the US dollar for global trade.

Currently Ukraine is bankrupt and in the state of fighting for survival. The war has been brutal and has killed millions of Russians and Ukrainians so far. Thousands die every single week. While Ukraine is struggling to mobilize and draft more hesitant and resistant people, Russia is using more and more drones and missiles to avoid and minimize their troop loses while maximizing strategic Ukrainian losses far from the battlefield.

>>4
Despite all of this, there is a sort of covert civil war going on in America. The neo-con faction who wants to provoke a direct war with Russia, versus the MAGA populist faction who voted for Trump to avoid a world war and walk away from this Biden-era mess. Trump is calmly trying to tip toe his way around both factions because either side could easily ruin his presidential agenda and make things very hard for him politically. There are the neo-cons hell bent for war (mostly politicians and 'deep state' government employees) and a large amount of fed up citizens (and vets) who have made it clear they won't fight or entertain another war. So there is deep, deep division in the US.


That said, I am one who believes the US can walk away from this and come out just fine. There are those who strongly disagree, claiming it would be a strategic defeat to America's integrity, yada yada. However, the loss of Ukraine would impact Europe far more than the US because Europe already banked on Russia collapsing. They put all their resources and money into this conflict and a loss would mean it was a loss over NOTHING. Europe would face political unrest in the future over such stupid policy, Europe is effectively bankrupt because of their support for Ukraine and breaking ties with Russia, China and India. Yes, Europe broke ALL their economic ties to support Ukraine and that is why Europe got fucked on the recent trade deal with Trump, Trump knew Europe was backed in a corner and the rest of the world didn't trust them anymore.

>>5
My prediction: Trump will squirm around this like an earthworm exposed to the sun. He will try to flatter the neo-cons by "maximum pressure sanctions!!!" but it won't stop Russia from their objective: controlling the Donbas border regions and a total military defeat of Ukraine. Trump will then get to say to his base "we are not fighting, they are, they continue to, we tried our best to stop it, we did what we could, let them fight it out some more!" Trump will be hoping his base understands this is the best he can do as far as the neo-cons remain in Congressional power. I do think Ukraine will probably lose this war. I do not think America will suffer in any significant way but it will bring shock to many when the front lines finally collapse and the Russians head to the capitol of Kiev for the death blow. It will upset a lot of people for sure. Europe will be BTFO strategically but they'll survive, probably with some regime change and political upheaval. Americans will carry on as if nothing happened by the time Trump gets out of office.